Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

What have you heard?
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FerrariFlyer
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Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby FerrariFlyer » Sun Mar 12 2017, 07:50

https://aviationvoice.com/aviation-futu ... 604191541/

In the mid-90's North Sea operators reached a crisis point and lost a lot of rotary-wing pilots to the airlines.

The USA is already offering incentives for rotary pilots to convert to fixed-wing with 'entry level' positions in the regionals.

Will history repeat itself with the above forecast shortage?
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby Mallard » Sun Mar 12 2017, 08:35

"pilot shortage" :lol:
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby Evil Twin » Sun Mar 12 2017, 08:47

Lets hope so. Wouldn't that be a great outcome for rotary aviation? I for one would love to see the tables turned.
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby Heliduck » Sun Mar 12 2017, 12:18

I've spent the last 20 years as a rotary pilot waiting to see the "retiring Vietnam pilots" shortage, knowing my luck just as I get too old the whole industry will take off! :cry:
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havick
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby havick » Sun Mar 12 2017, 17:01

Don't plan on seeing any noticeable effects in the helo world, the only thing that may happen is that some of the mins go down a little bit as supply gets a little tighter.
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby Gonsky » Sun Mar 12 2017, 20:16

Autopilots doing about 95% of the flying on commercial.

3~5 year window before long haul are auto, FedEx have been working on it for a few years as are the other majors just keeping it on the QT.

Flight crew error has been implicated in about half of all fatal airline accidents. Without pilots, airlines would have less outlays on salaries, training, healthcare, layover hotels and retirement benefits and the list goes on. At the end of the day it is all about $$$ not giving someone flight hours.

US Fed will increase rates this week starting a upward cycle putting more pressure on costs.

Regards,
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby havick » Sun Mar 12 2017, 20:54

Gonsky wrote:Autopilots doing about 95% of the flying on commercial.

3~5 year window before long haul are auto, FedEx have been working on it for a few years as are the other majors just keeping it on the QT.

Flight crew error has been implicated in about half of all fatal airline accidents. Without pilots, airlines would have less outlays on salaries, training, healthcare, layover hotels and retirement benefits and the list goes on. At the end of the day it is all about $$$ not giving someone flight hours.

US Fed will increase rates this week starting a upward cycle putting more pressure on costs.

Regards,


Keep dreaming. Sure autopilots will replace some commercial work, but you know as well as I do how long the wheels take to turn regarding regs etc before your figures are realistic.
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Eric Hunt
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby Eric Hunt » Mon Mar 13 2017, 05:06

The Powers That Be can't even automate trains completely, and these are unable to wander off course.

Automated cars are getting a bit closer (mine almost drives itself) but still need a human for when the situation overpowers the sensors.

Automated planes are Jetson dreams and Mail-order hype.

Most of the pilot-error incidents these days are due to the pilots not having enough hands-on time to understand what to do when the autopilot stops playing and sits in the corner in a huff.

I am one of the Vietnam-era retirees, and the company I left took on a junior pilot to replace me - Kiwi, much cheaper (less than half my pay), more likely to sign up for a ROS to get the quals needed to progress, and easier to let go again when the regular down-turns rolled along.
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby skypig » Mon Mar 13 2017, 06:16

Pilots have short memories.
Most can't remember a few short years ago, when in Australia, over an 18 month period, about 1/3 of the ME IFR pilots walked out of one operators door alone. (into one of the many jobs on offer at the time.)

Some of us can remember the advertisements featuring a Super Puma flying into a cloud and an A320 emerging from the other side. A lot of experienced ME IFR helicopter pilots lost the ability to hover (and gained the ability to drive a Porsche) in those days. (Mid '90s)

There is unlikely to be a shortage of pilots with 100hrs of experience. (If there ever is, you can make new ones in 6 months)
A shortage of experienced ME IFR pilots is almost guaranteed, at some stage. No matter how unlikely it looks today.
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby The Scarlett Harlot » Mon Mar 13 2017, 09:03

Eric Hunt wrote:The Powers That Be can't even automate trains completely, and these are unable to wander off course



Au contraire old mate, when the poor bored drone in the front forgets to apply the brake, the automated systems can be behind the 8 ball trying to rectify the situation with the result that the locomotion often chooses a "flight" response and sidesteps the established path to a rather different and more spectacular result.

Ie, it jumps the rails and spreads itself over the countryside.

Eric Hunt wrote:Most of the pilot-error incidents these days are due to the pilots not having enough hands-on time to understand what to do when the autopilot stops playing and sits in the corner in a huff.


AF447 provides all the example anyone needs there......
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby zzodr » Mon Mar 13 2017, 11:15

The old flight crew error and autopilot argument. Notice they don't collect statistics on accidents avoided and lives saved due to a trained crew upfront when things go pear shaped.

Have a browse through this and then wonder if computers would do a better job.

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalkin ... ed-qantas/

Autopilots can and have clicked off during severe turbulence and windshear.
Who is going to fly the plane when that happens?

The crew fly the aircraft VIA the autopilot, you don't just click a button and it does everything by itself.
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby Gonsky » Mon Mar 13 2017, 12:15

Being realistic is exactly my point, after 30+ years of consulting in various segments globally change always occurs considerably faster than everyone thinks it will, and that includes me and been caught out various times. This is no longer just about aerospace, global industries are facing dramatic changes in every segment and the curve is only getting steeper.

I don't base my comments on dreams just facts. Most industries in the last 5~10 years have increased productivity with lower staffing and streamlining on multiple levels, this is not going to be reversed it will only become more extreme. WA has collapsed yet the miners are going great, record prices with lower costs.

In the end it is left to those that think change won't happen or those that see that change is coming and presents opportunity.

It is a race to the podium and you only need one commercial carrier to go for it, and once again it will be purely based on costs and little else. The instant economic advantage one carrier will have over others will quickly force the competition to do the same or face the economic consequences. Current rules require 2 in the cockpit yet how long will that last, 95% of 2.5 hour domestic flights are on the auto.

Everyone always believes they are irreplaceable, until they are replaced.

Regards,
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby havick » Mon Mar 13 2017, 15:49

Gonsky wrote:Being realistic is exactly my point, after 30+ years of consulting in various segments globally change always occurs considerably faster than everyone thinks it will, and that includes me and been caught out various times. This is no longer just about aerospace, global industries are facing dramatic changes in every segment and the curve is only getting steeper.

I don't base my comments on dreams just facts. Most industries in the last 5~10 years have increased productivity with lower staffing and streamlining on multiple levels, this is not going to be reversed it will only become more extreme. WA has collapsed yet the miners are going great, record prices with lower costs.

In the end it is left to those that think change won't happen or those that see that change is coming and presents opportunity.

It is a race to the podium and you only need one commercial carrier to go for it, and once again it will be purely based on costs and little else. The instant economic advantage one carrier will have over others will quickly force the competition to do the same or face the economic consequences. Current rules require 2 in the cockpit yet how long will that last, 95% of 2.5 hour domestic flights are on the auto.

Everyone always believes they are irreplaceable, until they are replaced.

Regards,


Respectfully I question your experience in aviation based on above. You may well be a great engineer but it really does appear that you haven't had a great deal of experience dealing with aviation regulators and the change of regs.

Just look at the part 61 or the flight and duty rules as just a couple of screw ups by casa and then take another stab at how quickly you think there will be pilotless aircraft flying paying pax around in rpt. Sure it will happen eventually but I think your timelines need to be tripled or quadrupled for a realistic outlook.

Another case in point, to fly IFR we need to be able to ensure continuous two way comms. In remote areas the regs currently only allow for VHF and HF, they haven't caught up with technology and listed SAT phones. So good luck with the regs catching up with pilotless aircraft carrying passengers in a timely fashion.
Last edited by havick on Mon Mar 13 2017, 18:08, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby Heliduck » Mon Mar 13 2017, 17:05

The technology for pilotless aircraft has been around for decades so that's not a limiting factor. I tend to agree that the regs will be a sticking point, for example we were using GPS for 20 years before it was an approved primary means of navigation. Beyond the delay caused by regulations I think the delay will come from the passengers perception - joe bloe off the street doesn't care how safe we say it is, I think they'll want someone sitting up the front even if they are over-educated ballast.
I can't wait for 2 different flights to go on sale - 1 with 2 pilots up front & a cheaper option with no pilots, let's see which has the longest line at check-in!
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby Hello Pilots » Mon Mar 13 2017, 20:44

Back to the topic.....
In regards to helicopters, doesn't there have to be an excess of JOBS available before a shortfall is experienced?
Let's face it, there isn't a lot of work out there now or the foreseeable future, if anything there is an excess of pilots.
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby kiwiflyer » Mon Mar 13 2017, 21:06

I think the point of the thread even if you just read the title is that there is suggestion that there will be a shortage of helicopter pilots if helicopter pilots were to swap over to flying fixed wing because they have a shortage of pilots.
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby Hello Pilots » Mon Mar 13 2017, 23:34

ooooh ok
Where do I sign.....Happily be the first to jump ship
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby Gonsky » Tue Mar 14 2017, 00:11

Moved
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby skypig » Tue Mar 14 2017, 03:21

Hello Pilots wrote:ooooh ok
Where do I sign.....Happily be the first to jump ship


The fixed wing opportunities are likely to be for pilots with significant ME IFR experience, and English language skills sufficient to recognise the meaning of the word "looming". 8) - :cool_dc:
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Re: Fixed-wing pilot shortage looming...will it create a rotary-wing shortage in turn

Postby Firefish » Tue Mar 14 2017, 05:07

I can't wait for the day my car can drive me home from the pub when I'm hammered!

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